Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $735,906$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{692,353.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.6)}}\) (asimptote \(692,353.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19,789$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,013.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 127.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19,013.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,379$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,291$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,126.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,126.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $100$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 225.6)}}\) (asimptote \(198.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $760$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,543$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,794$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,333$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $67,039$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,160.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 195.8)}}\) (asimptote \(86,160.4\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $920$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,122.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 184.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,122.0\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,876$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $252,185$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{533,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 241.9)}}\) (asimptote \(533,475.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,197$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,934.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 228.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,934.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,432$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,962$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,253.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(103,253.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,355$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,029.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,029.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,368$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,605$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,378.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,378.1\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59$ on 2020-11-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,092$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,201.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,201.6\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39$ on 2020-11-07