Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Tunisia
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Namibia
  • Mozambique

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $735,906$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{692,353.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.6)}}\) (asimptote \(692,353.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19,789$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,013.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 127.7)}}\) (asimptote \(19,013.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,379$ on 2020-11-07

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,291$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,126.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,126.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{198.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 225.6)}}\) (asimptote \(198.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $760$ on 2020-11-07

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,543$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,794$ on 2020-11-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,333$ on 2020-11-07

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,039$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,160.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 195.8)}}\) (asimptote \(86,160.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $920$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,122.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 184.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,122.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,876$ on 2020-11-07

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $252,185$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{533,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 241.9)}}\) (asimptote \(533,475.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,197$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,934.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 228.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,934.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,432$ on 2020-11-07

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,962$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,253.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.2)}}\) (asimptote \(103,253.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,355$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,029.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,029.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,368$ on 2020-11-07

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,605$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,378.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,378.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-11-07

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,092$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,201.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,201.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39$ on 2020-11-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Senegal recovered 99%
Burkina Faso recovered 82%
South Africa recovered 78%
Namibia recovered 71%
Mozambique recovered 45%
Ethiopia recovered 15%

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,693$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,020.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,020.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(325.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-11-07

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,565$ on 2020-11-07

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(56.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $128$ on 2020-11-07

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,170$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,901.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(12,901.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $134$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{132.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(132.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,434$ on 2020-11-07

Mozambique⮸

Population $31,255,435$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,577$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,544.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 177.4)}}\) (asimptote \(19,544.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-11-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(151.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,897$ on 2020-11-07